Iran’s F-35 Claim Is Wild — Even in "IADS: The Game"

Strong recommend on Alex Hollings' recent reporting, "Did Iran shoot down Israel's F-35s? What would it mean if they did?"! I've always really appreciated Alex's thoughtful, thorough reporting, and I think he hits some really important points here, all while not overstating the likelihood of the possible F-35 shoot downs.

From an IADS: The Game perspective, here's some things I loved about his piece:

🪦 Hermes 900, RIP!

Love that Alex calls it like he sees it — not burying successes Iran does have (when it actually has them). In IADS: The Game, we have a unit card similar to the Hermes 900, the "Attack RPA". When we included this type of strike aircraft, we wanted to capture their air-to-surface capacity, even if it might just be 500 lb bombs or anti-tank missiles. With just one air-to-surface missile token and super low defense, you can really either:

• Wait until you and your team can fly it in uncontested to get a nice surface detect against a defenseless "HQ card", or

• Send it in bold and unafraid! It's only 0.5 Attrition Points after all, and the adversary will have to reveal their position to shoot it down!

One thing we did give the "Attack RPA" was the EO Sensor special capability. This lets it Detect surface units without revealing itself. Real world, a bunch of different aircraft have electro-optical and infrared sensors, but because in IADS, there's not really a way to show how great RPAs are at Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (particularly with insane loiter times from a fighter aircraft perspective), we wanted to give some love to our RPA homies with a unique special ability.

🎯 5th-Generation Fighters are REALLY hard to kill!

If Iran really had shot down an F-35, it would be one of the most significant air defense successes in decades. Aircraft like the F-35 and F-22 dominate the sky! In IADS: The Game, weapon systems like these are represented by the "Advanced Multi-Role Fighter" and the "Advanced Air Superiority Fighter"; they really bring a lot to the table:

• Some of the highest Agility in the game,

• 4d6 (four six-sided dice) air-to-air missiles,

• The Low Observable special capability (only allowing them to ignore the first two attempts to detect them), and

• The highest aircraft Defense in the game.

These strengths make them very difficult to shoot down. That said, they're not invincible and they do come with a hefty price tag of 4 attrition points -- enough to turn the tide in a close match. Grave errors like bad mission planning (like directly overflying undetected "Advanced SAMs"), miscalculations on adversary order of battle (like not knowing the adversary's first draft was also an advanced fighter) are really the best ways to lose these assets.

Losing them to un-upgraded legacy assets, as Iran claims for these F-35s though? Not likely. I side with Alex: Iranian evidence of the shoot-downs is not good. I'd go so far as to say it's comically bad.

🎲 Story AND Stats!

I loved how Alex emphasized the complexity of real world air combat, acknowledging we really can't make any judgements on performance/successes until we actually know the context of an alleged shoot-down. He points out that things like poor planning, mechanical issues, technological failures, and human error could easily be the cause of a loss of aircraft without it really being an indicator of Iranian competence.

That's something I really like about the way combat unfolds in the IADS. I know it might seem like a cop-out for fans of number-intensive, 4-hour long, simulation games, but I like the blank mental canvas that's created when something unexpected or unusual happens in IADS. Whenever I play this game with experienced air power professionals, I love seeing the gears turning as they recall from experience how a sure-to-hit missile just might whiff. In appropriately classified environments, they can paint vivid and terrifying situations!

For those interested, there's some actually some neat shoot down video essays here at the UNCLASSIFIED level:

• Gary Powers' U-2 is Shot Down Over the Soviet Union - Animated

  by The Operations Room

• F-117 Nighthawk Shootdown over Serbia, 1999 - Animated

  by The Operations Room

In IADS, every unit has stats — defense values and missile attack values. But these values aren't guarantees. Just like real world, weapon systems in the game can fail; missiles malfunction, bombs become unexploded ordinance, and adversaries may or may not choose to engage! A “sure thing” shot can fizzle when the dice don’t land in your favor.

That tension between what should happen and what actually does? It's one of the things that keeps me playing — the fog, friction, and imperfection echoes real-world conflict.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Stats give us a framework, but unpredictability — the fog of war — give the game a taste of realism. IADS: The Game doesn’t pretend to model reality perfectly, but it does try to honor it!

Lastly, as much as I love to nerd out about air warfare, tactics, technology, and geopolitics, let's get some not-war going out there! Big fan of not-being-at-war over here.

Peace!

– Ric